Thursday, November 13, 2008

German Economy Enters Worst Recession in 12 Years

Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The German economy, Europe's largest, contracted more than economists expected in the third quarter, pushing the nation into the worst recession in at least 12 years.

Gross domestic product dropped a seasonally adjusted 0.5 percent from the second quarter, when it fell 0.4 percent, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. Economists expected a 0.2 percent decline, the median of 40 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey showed. The economy last contracted this much over two consecutive quarters -- the technical definition of a recession -- in 1996.

German companies are scaling back production as slower global growth erodes export demand. Siemens AG, Europe's largest engineering company, reported a profit decline today and plans to cut 16,750 jobs by 2010. Germany's benchmark DAX Index has tumbled more than 40 percent this year, business confidence fell to a five-year low last month and manufacturing orders plunged in September.

``The German recession has begun in earnest and it's very serious,'' said Holger Schmieding, chief European economist at Bank of America Corp. in London. ``It raises the risk of a German contraction of more than 1 percent next year and we will have to revise down our forecast for the euro area as well.''

Eurostat, the European Union's statistics arm, will publish third-quarter growth data for the euro region tomorrow.

Exports Hurt

The euro dropped more than a cent to $1.2388 after the German report. European notes rose, pushing the yield on the two-year security down 5 basis points to 2.22 percent, the lowest level in three years.

In the year, the economy grew 0.8 percent when adjusted for the number of working days, the statistics office said. The third- quarter slowdown was led by trade as exports weakened and imports rose. Consumer and government spending improved ``slightly.''

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development today joined the International Monetary Fund in predicting advanced economies including the U.S. and euro area will contract simultaneously next year for the first time since World War II.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King and European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet have all signaled they're ready to cut interest rates further to stem the deepening economic slump.

The European Commission said on Nov. 3 that the 15-nation euro region is probably already in a recession. Just over 40 percent of German exports go to other euro-area nations.

`Shock Waves'

Households may spend less and save more as companies retrench. Continental AG, which makes auto parts, plans to jettison 5,000 temporary workers and extend holiday production breaks. General Motors Corp.'s Adam Opel brand closed plants in Eisenach and Bochum for three and two weeks respectively to reduce production, forcing workers to take a vacation.

``The shock waves pushed out by the financial crisis have hit Germany full on, if later'' than other countries, the government's five independent economic advisers said yesterday. They called on Chancellor Angela Merkel to expand a 50 billion-euro ($63 billion) fiscal stimulus package to help revive growth.

Siemens Chief Executive Officer Peter Loescher today said next year's profit goals have become ``more ambitious'' after the company reported a bigger decline in fourth-quarter earnings than analysts had expected.

Deutsche Lufthansa AG, Europe's second-biggest airline, said it filled fewer seats on its aircraft last month as the cooling economy deterred business and leisure travel.

`Final Push'

Ralph Solveen, an economist at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, expects a ``marginal'' recovery in the second half of next year.

``The German economy would have cooled regardless of the financial crisis, which just gave it the final push into recession,'' he said. ``The factors that slowed German growth earlier this year such as high inflation, a strong euro and tight monetary policy are all disappearing, which should feed through to the economy next year.''

The statistics office revised first-quarter growth to 1.4 percent from 1.3 percent and raised its second-quarter estimate from a 0.5 percent decline. It will publish a detailed breakdown for the third quarter on Nov. 25.

The turmoil that began with the U.S. housing slump drove Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. into bankruptcy in September and caused the biggest global stock sell-off in 70 years. The world's largest financial companies have posted almost $1 trillion in writedowns since the start of last year, when the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market triggered a credit shortage.

ECB Rates

With growth slowing around the world, oil prices have collapsed to $56 a barrel yesterday from a peak of $147 in July, easing inflation pressure and giving central banks from Washington to Beijing room to slash interest rates. The euro has dropped 20 percent against the dollar in the past four months.

Investors expect the European Central Bank to lower its benchmark rate by at least half a percentage point at its next meeting on Dec. 4, Eonia forward contracts show. That would be the sharpest rate reduction in the bank's 10-year history after its two half-point cuts in the past month to 3.25 percent.

Germany still faces ``a long, drawn-out recession,'' said Stefan Bielmeier, an economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Frankfurt, who forecasts the economy will shrink 1.5 percent next year. ``Unfortunately, we don't see any respite any time soon. Where should the growth come from?''




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Asian Stocks Tumble, Extend Global Rout, on U.S. Treasury Shift

Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell, extending a global rout, as the U.S. Treasury scrapped plans to buy mortgage assets, Commonwealth Bank of Australia said bad debts may double and China's industrial output missed estimates.

Commonwealth Bank slumped 6 percent as Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson shifted the focus of the government's $700 billion bailout plan to consumer credit. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, dropped 12 percent after oil and metals prices sank. LG Display Co. and Sharp Corp. tumbled after being fined for price fixing and as Intel Corp. lowered its sales forecast. China Construction Bank Corp. fell 4.7 percent in Hong Kong after the nation's factory production slowed.

``Investors had expected corporate earnings and economic data to be bad, but the figures keep getting worse,'' said Seo Jung Ho, who helps oversee $2.2 billion at UBS Hana Asset Management Co. in Seoul. ``Paulson's change in plans is making people wonder if our fears are coming true, that the financial crisis in the mortgage sphere is spreading to consumers.''

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 4.8 percent to 82.32 at 7:32 p.m. in Tokyo. The stock index has declined 48 percent this year, valuing it at 9.8 times reported earnings. That compares to 18 times for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, and 8.9 times for Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index.

Futures on the S&P 500 fell 0.4 percent. Financial stocks led the U.S. gauge down 5.2 percent yesterday, leaving it less than 0.5 percent above its lowest close in five years. Citigroup Inc. and the S&P 500 Financials Index slid to 12-year lows. The Stoxx 600 Index sank 3.3 percent. The MSCI World Index dropped 1.3 percent today, taking a three-day slide to 8.7 percent.

Mounting Credit Losses

Most Asian markets slumped as Best Buy Co., the largest U.S. electronics retailer, warned of a slowdown in spending, fueling concern that corporate profits worldwide are declining. Dentsu Inc. and Asatsu-DK Inc., two of Japan's biggest advertisers, lowered their profit forecasts.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped 5.3 percent to 8,238.64. The country's economy is at risk of deteriorating further as the global financial turmoil slows growth worldwide, central bank board member Seiji Nakamura said today. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index lost 5.2 percent, led by HSBC Holdings Plc.

The collapse of the U.S. mortgage market sparked $950 billion in losses and writedowns at financial companies and now threatens a global economic recession. The International Monetary Fund said on Nov. 7 the U.S., Europe and Japan may experience the first simultaneous recession in the post-World War II era.

The world is in for an extended period of sluggish growth, David Bonderman, founder of private equity firm TPG Inc., said in Hong Kong today. Central banks in the U.S., U.K. and China are among those that have lowered benchmark interest rates to stimulate spending and growth.

`Troubled Market'

China's CSI 300 Index rose 4 percent today to the highest in three weeks. Dongfang Electric Corp., the country's No. 2 maker of power equipment, jumped 10 percent to 20.92 yuan after the government approved construction of 10 nuclear power plants.

Treasury and Federal Reserve officials are exploring a new ``facility'' to bolster the market for securities backed by assets, Paulson said. Officials are considering using a portion of the $700 billion financial bailout money to ``encourage private investors to come back to this troubled market,'' he said.

Buying ``illiquid'' mortgage-related assets -- the reason the Troubled Asset Relief Program was established a month ago -- is no longer being considered, he said. Citigroup, Bank of America Corp., and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. dropped more than 9 percent each in U.S. trading yesterday after Paulson's comments.

In Sydney, Commonwealth Bank fell 6 percent to A$33, the lowest close since Jan. 25, 2005. Australia's biggest mortgage lender said bad debts may double this year due to lending to companies including Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

Commodities Slump

HSBC, Europe's largest bank, slid 6.3 percent to HK$80.85 as it will cut jobs in its private-banking division. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan's biggest bank, lost 3.7 percent to 592 yen.

Mizuho Financial Group Inc., Japan's second-largest bank by revenue, slumped 6.6 percent to 254,500 won. The company plans to sell about 300 billion yen ($3.2 billion) of preferred securities to replenish capital depleted by rising bad loans and losses on stock investments.

``It's hard to get away from the drumbeat of negatives,'' said Liam Dalton, who oversees $1.3 billion as New York-based chief executive officer of Axiom Capital Management.

Energy companies on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 4.6 percent as a group, while raw-material producers declined 7 percent collectively. Melbourne-based BHP tumbled 12 percent to A$25, after scrapping a possible $4.5 billion nickel project in Indonesia. PetroChina Co., China's largest oil producer, slumped 6.4 percent to HK$5.60 in Hong Kong. Exxon Mobil Corp., the biggest oil company, fell 5.1 percent to $68.93 in New York.

Toshiba, Sony

Oil sank 5.3 percent to $56.16 a barrel at the close of New York trading on forecasts that tomorrow's Energy Department report will show U.S. crude inventories grew last week amid decreased energy demand. Nickel, gasoline and crude led declines in the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials.

Companies with U.S. sales fell as Best Buy yesterday slashed its earnings forecast for the year through February, citing a ``seismic'' slowdown in consumer spending in the largest market for Asian-made products.

The Best Buy report preceded Intel's announcement that fourth-quarter sales will be lower than its earlier estimate by about $1 billion amid ``significantly weaker'' demand. Applied Materials Inc., the biggest maker of chip-production machinery, also said yesterday that orders may fall more.

`So Many Problems'

Toshiba Corp., Japan's largest chipmaker, slumped 4.8 percent to 337 yen in Tokyo. Sony Corp., the world's second- largest consumer electronics maker, dropped 8.7 percent to 2,000 yen. Samsung Electronics Co., the world's second-largest semiconductor maker after Intel, lost 1.4 percent to 474,000 won.

LG Display tumbled 11 percent to 20,100 won, Sharp fell 8.4 percent to 667 yen, while Chunghwa Picture Tubes Ltd. dropped 7 percent to NT$2.79. The three liquid-crystal-display makers agreed to plead guilty and pay $585 million in fines for conspiring to fix prices.

Chinese shares in Hong Kong sank after industrial output rose in October at the slowest pace in seven years. Growth of 8.2 percent missed the 11.1 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

China Construction Bank fell 4.7 percent to HK$4.05. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. declined 3.9 percent to HK$3.68.

``There are just so many problems around,'' said Julian Robertson, founder of hedge fund Tiger Management LLC, who is betting against some Chinese, Irish and Spanish companies. ``I don't think people have recognized the extent of this potential correction which we're in.''

Dentsu, Japan's largest advertiser, fell 7.5 percent to 153,300 yen, after cutting its full-year profit forecast by 27 percent. Asatsu-DK dropped 6.1 percent to 2,220 yen, after saying profit will be 46 percent lower than its previous prediction.



mp3 Carpathian Forest
mp3 Army of Lovers
mp3 Ancient
mp3 Darude
mp3 Faithless
mp3 Gehenna
mp3 Down
mp3 Dale Dick
mp3 Catamenia
mp3 Ferry Bryan
mp3 Birthday Party
mp3 Autumn Tears
mp3 Arise
mp3 Arcturus
mp3 Apoptygma Berzerk
mp3 Alice In Chains
mp3 Alice Cooper
mp3 Absu
mp3 Judas Priest
mp3 Wolfgang Press
mp3 DJ Sammy
mp3 AQUA
mp3 Thin Lizzy
mp3 Type O Negative
mp3 UB40
mp3 STOA
mp3 Overkill
mp3 Pro-Pain
mp3 Mesh (UK)
mp3 Joy Division
mp3 Круиз
mp3 In Extremo
mp3 Emir Kusturica & The No Smoking Orchestra
mp3 Boy George
mp3 Krall Diana
mp3 Clannad
mp3 Childhood
mp3 Green Grey
mp3 Soundtrack - Cartoons
mp3 Zodiac
mp3 Hall Jim
mp3 Voodoo & Serano
mp3 Gil Ventura
mp3 Branford Marsalis
mp3 Rednex
mp3 Shepp Archie
mp3 Dickinson Bruce
mp3 Right Said Fred
mp3 Norman Chris
mp3 Линда
mp3 Найк Борзов
mp3 Kravitz Lenny
mp3 Celentano Adriano
mp3 Tricky
mp3 Bolin Tommy
mp3 Waits Tom
mp3 Firm
mp3 Skinny Puppy
mp3 Sinergy
mp3 Rossomahaar
mp3 Halford
mp3 Afro Celt Sound System
mp3 Carey Tony
mp3 Dassin Joe
mp3 69 Eyes
mp3 Opeth
mp3 Dimmu Borgir
mp3 Coroner
mp3 Slayer
mp3 Kingdom Come
mp3 Lamya
mp3 Talking Heads
mp3 Pearl Jam
mp3 Oliver Shanti And Friends
mp3 M.O.D.
mp3 Chemical Brothers
mp3 Third Force
mp3 Sweet 75
mp3 Stone Temple Pilots
mp3 Sinead OConnor
mp3 Simon & Garfunkel
mp3 Shriekback
mp3 Secret Garden
mp3 Running Wild
mp3 Glover Roger
mp3 Wilson Cassandra
mp3 Charon
mp3 Methods of Mayhem
mp3 Sentenced
mp3 Гаина Валерий
mp3 Liquid Tension Experiment
mp3 Blackmore Ritchie
mp3 Queensryche
mp3 B3
mp3 Pain
mp3 Michael Learns to Rock
mp3 Barre Martin
mp3 Laika
mp3 Page & Plant
mp3 Jefferson Airplane (Jefferson Starship)
mp3 Last James
mp3 Eagles
mp3 Hollies
mp3 Rolling Stones
mp3 Public Enemy
mp3 Mono (UK)
mp3 Lang Jonny
mp3 Reflex
mp3 R.E.M.
mp3 Белый орел
mp3 Сукачев Гарик
mp3 Rea Chris
mp3 Filter
mp3 Fiori
mp3 MarkOh
mp3 Brown James
mp3 Северные врата
mp3 After Forever
mp3 Fat Joe
mp3 Мастер
mp3 Hammerfall
mp3 Menhir
mp3 HIM
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mp3 Yes
mp3 Shahin & Sepehr
mp3 Wonder Stevie
mp3 Brightman Sarah
mp3 Sting
mp3 Police
mp3 Forest of Shadows
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mp3 Aaliyah
mp3 Soundtracks - Games
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mp3 Morricone Ennio
mp3 Fink
mp3 Cosmic Gate
mp3 Skyclad
mp3 Simple Minds
mp3 Shivaree
mp3 Puddle Of Mudd
mp3 Prodigy (UK)
mp3 Presley Elvis
mp3 Trail Of Tears
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mp3 Hallucinogen
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mp3 Emperor
mp3 Ice Ages
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mp3 Beatles
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mp3 Rage (Ger)
mp3 Foreigner
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mp3 PPK
mp3 Черный кофе
mp3 Баба Яга
mp3 Grom (RU)
mp3 Dokken
mp3 Amos Tori
mp3 Rubio Paulina
mp3 Supermax
mp3 Rush
mp3 Dio
mp3 Sweet
mp3 Meat Loaf
mp3 Finntroll
mp3 :wumpscut:
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mp3 Slipknot
mp3 Soulfly
mp3 Mystic Circle
mp3 Hypocrisy
mp3 Ram-Zet
mp3 Cannibal Corpse
mp3 Behemoth (Pol)
mp3 Impaled Nazarene
mp3 Samael
mp3 Estatic Fear
mp3 Dornenreich
mp3 Saturnus
mp3 Die Apokalyptischen Reiter
mp3 Summoning
mp3 Bal-Sagoth
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mp3 Swans
mp3 Sepultura
mp3 Deicide
mp3 Cradle Of Filth
mp3 Nokturnal Mortum
mp3 Van der Graaf Generator
mp3 Amber
mp3 Lambretta
mp3 DJ Aligator
mp3 Cult
mp3 Mr. Bungle
mp3 Ministry
mp3 Download
mp3 Dark Tranquillity
mp3 Red Hot Chili Peppers
mp3 Crystal Method
mp3 Cypress Hill
mp3 Sash!
mp3 Smith Will
mp3 Santana Carlos
mp3 Pink Floyd
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mp3 Muddy Waters
mp3 Mortiis
mp3 Molotov
mp3 Monster Magnet
mp3 Green Day
mp3 Motley Crue
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mp3 Chaquico Craig
mp3 Oakenfold Paul
mp3 Bangles
mp3 Plant Robert
mp3 Cassius
mp3 Beatallica
mp3 One Fine Day
mp3 Жуки
mp3 Nine Inch Nails
mp3 Muse
mp3 Cruachan
mp3 3 Doors Down
mp3 Black Sabbath
mp3 Chicago
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mp3 Anthrax
mp3 Spears Britney
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mp3 Deep Forest
mp3 Brooks Meredith
mp3 McKennitt Loreena
mp3 Massive Attack
mp3 Meshuggah
mp3 Mandragora Scream
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mp3 Lacrimas Profundere
mp3 Anderson Ian
mp3 Helloween
mp3 Eyes (US)
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mp3 Endraum
mp3 Recoil
mp3 Sex Pistols
mp3 Dirty Vegas
mp3 Boyz II Men
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mp3 Calling
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mp3 Nirvana
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mp3 Power Symphony
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mp3 Liquido
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mp3 Бутусов Вячеслав
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mp3 Doors
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mp3 Guardians Of Time
mp3 His Name Is Alive
mp3 In Flames
mp3 Metallica
mp3 Kovenant
mp3 Eternal Tears Of Sorrow
mp3 Elend
mp3 Arrow
mp3 Safri Duo
mp3 Atlas Natacha
mp3 Ford Lita
mp3 Мумий Тролль
mp3 Aphrodite`s Child
mp3 Чичерина
mp3 Harrison George
mp3 Fogerty John
mp3 Fear Factory
mp3 Смысловые Галлюцинации
mp3 Пугачева Алла
mp3 Hammill Peter
mp3 Валерия
mp3 Конец Фильма
mp3 Deadушки
mp3 Creedence Clearwater Revival
mp3 Roxette
mp3 Total
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mp3 Webber Andrew Lloyd
mp3 Transatlantic
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mp3 Ozzy Osbourne
mp3 Backstreet Boys
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mp3 Гражданская Оборона
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mp3 No Mercy
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mp3 Queen
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mp3 AC/DC
mp3 Donalds Andru
mp3 Wham!
mp3 Alcatrazz
mp3 Jethro Tull
mp3 Planet P Project
mp3 Группировка \Ленинград\
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mp3 Scorpions (Ger)
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mp3 Oasis
mp3 Gessle Per
mp3 Jackson Michael
mp3 H-Blockx
mp3 Within Temptation
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mp3 Cardigans
mp3 Sunbeam
mp3 Crow Sheryl
mp3 Rank 1
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mp3 Curve
mp3 Anathema
mp3 Bomfunk MCs
mp3 Al Bano & Romina Power
mp3 Madrigal (Swe)
mp3 Kosheen
mp3 Communards
mp3 Iron Maiden (UK London)
mp3 Coil
mp3 Genesis
mp3 Moss
mp3 Jazzanova
mp3 Faith No More
mp3 Fila Brazillia
mp3 De-Phazz
mp3 Ten Years After
mp3 Los Lobos
mp3 Golden Earring
mp3 Hughes Glenn
mp3 Moore Gary
mp3 Fandango [UK]
mp3 Lee Alvin
mp3 Satriani Joe
mp3 ELP
mp3 Soundtracks - Movies
mp3 Snap!
mp3 Silicon Dream
mp3 Shaggy
mp3 Alan Parsons Project
mp3 Scooter
mp3 Electric Light Orchestra
mp3 Fox Samantha
mp3 Michael George
mp3 Astley Rick
mp3 Rammstein
mp3 Pet Shop Boys
mp3 KoRn
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mp3 Paradise Lost
mp3 Papa Roach
mp3 Orbital
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mp3 Offspring
mp3 Nickelback
mp3 Collins Phil
mp3 Palast Orchester & Max Raabe
mp3 Farmer Mylene
mp3 Moby
mp3 Modern Talking
mp3 Fredriksson Marie
mp3 Brennan Maire [Clannad]
mp3 Madonna
mp3 Lou Bega

Trust Me, Again

Right or wrong, Treasury Secretary Paulson's shifting strategies put his most valuable asset--his credibility--at risk.

On Friday, Sept. 19, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson marched into the Treasury Department's media room and announced he needed several hundred billion dollars to save the financial system by buying "troubled assets." Markets soared.

Wednesday, Paulson traipsed in again and said the $700 billion that Congress granted him will not be used to buy troubled assets after all, but rather to shore up troubled companies by taking equity stakes, among other things. "Our assessment at this time is that this is not the most effective way to use TARP funds," Paulson said.

Paulson says he would like to use much of the remaining $350 billion to support consumer debt--the credit cards, auto loans and student loans that in regular times fuel much of the nation's spending but have since ground to a halt. The Treasury is now exploring, along with the Federal Reserve, a possible "liquidity facility" for highly rated asset-backed securities.

Maybe it's the right way to go, maybe not. But as the government's efforts to shore up the nation's economy and financial system continue to balloon, the man running those efforts is putting the most important asset he possesses right now--his credibility--at increasing risk.

By changing tactics and communicating poorly, he may be inadvertently recreating the same failed ad-hoc approach to the crisis he's been trying to escape. That's a problem. For the next three months, he's still the bailer-in-chief for a market lacking confidence. Wednesday, the Dow ended the day down 411 points.




mp3 Anouk
mp3 Roth Ulrich Jon
mp3 Placebo
mp3 Skylark
mp3 Myriads
mp3 50 Tons of Black Terror
mp3 Pink
mp3 Eternal (UK)
mp3 Twenty 4 Seven (NL)
mp3 Fun Factory
mp3 Culture Beat
mp3 C+C Music Factory
mp3 Alexia
mp3 EX Сектор Газа
mp3 Young Neil
mp3 Friedman Marty
mp3 Kix
mp3 Jarre Jean-Michel
mp3 Porcupine Tree
mp3 Ursula 1000
mp3 Turilli Luca
mp3 Destruction
mp3 Zeke
mp3 Totalitar
mp3 Lillingtons
mp3 Gladiators
mp3 Exploited
mp3 Madness
mp3 Les 100 Grammes De Tetes
mp3 Discipline
mp3 Chelsea
mp3 Casualties
mp3 Damn Yankees
mp3 Orb
mp3 Staind
mp3 Чайф
mp3 Ляпис Трубецкой
mp3 UFO
mp3 Tolkki Timo
mp3 Animals
mp3 Stratovarius
mp3 Paco De Lucia
mp3 Sopor Aeternus & The Ensemble Of Shadows
mp3 Smashing Pumpkins
mp3 Sisters Of Mercy
mp3 Satyricon
mp3 Residents
mp3 Ragnarok (Nor)
mp3 Pixies
mp3 Napalm Death
mp3 Marillion
mp3 Malevolent Creation
mp3 Majesty (Ger)
mp3 Love
mp3 Lock Up
mp3 Limbonic Art
mp3 Аквариум (Борис Гребенщиков (БГ))
mp3 Lake Of Tears
mp3 Kamelot
mp3 Iron Butterfly
mp3 Insania
mp3 Guidance Of Sin
mp3 Great White
mp3 Gotthard
mp3 Gorefest
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mp3 Feeder
mp3 Shapplin Emma
mp3 НОМ (Неформальное Объединение Молодежи)
mp3 Сливки
mp3 Скрябiн
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mp3 Green Peter
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mp3 Кузьмин Владимир
mp3 Иванушки International
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mp3 Dead Kennedys
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mp3 Света
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mp3 Ashen Light
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mp3 Pretty Maids
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mp3 ...And Oceans
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